The sale transaction information is derived from the property statistics published by the Land Board, and information on sale ads from the kv.ee property portal.
The number of house sale transactions conducted in Tallinn and its surrounding municipalities (Viimsi, Jõelähtme, Rae, Kiili, Saku, Saue, and Harku) has fallen drastically. The average number of sale transactions per quarter was approximately 200 in 2021; in the first three quarters of 2022, the number decreased to an average of approximately 130, in the last quarter of the same year to 100, and in the first quarter of this year to as low as about 80.
Within two years the 236 transactions conducted in the second quarter of 2021 shrunk to only a third of it. The number of transactions started to fall in the autumn last year due to rapidly increasing interest rates and energy prices which caused potential buyers to become hesitant and to postpone their purchasing decisions. By this year’s spring energy prices have come significantly down from their peaks and people are also beginning to come to terms with higher interest rates. This has resulted in a gradual recovery of buying interest. The number of transactions conducted during the first two months of the second quarter of 2023 is already higher than it was in the first quarter: 91.
The number of sales offers (active sale ads on the kv.ee portal on the first date of the quarter) – which hovered around approximately 1,100 from the beginning of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 – started thereafter to vigorously grow and reached 1,650 in the last quarter of 2022. This year began with the offer number being about 1,100 which is normal considering the holiday season. In the second quarter the number increased to around 1,320.
There are two reasons for this: firstly, many developers of private residences, having seen the high demand and price hike in 2021, took on a greater volume of new sites. Furthermore, several large-volume residential developments were put in action. Secondly, more properties are put on sale due to increased loan and utility costs.
Within the first four months of this year, a total of 23 residences priced at EUR 500,000 or more were sold in Harju County. The most expensive house cost EUR 800,000. It is located in Viimsi Municipality and has a total area of approximately 250 m2. Two more houses sold for more than EUR 700,000: one of around 255 m2 in Pirita (EUR 760,000) and one of around 250 m2 in the Veskimöldre2 residential area in Saue Municipality (EUR 730,000).
There are nearly 300 private residences in Harju County offered for sale at more than EUR 500,000 on the kv.ee portal (including some houses in the Old Town, some apartment blocks, manors, and houses for a commercial purpose) of which almost 70 are priced at over EUR 1 million.
The most expensive private residences are both priced at EUR 2.2 million: one of approximately 475 m2 in Pirita and one of approximately 390 m2 in Nõmme.
Prognosis
We are witnessing a gradual rise in the market activity, and if all goes well, the number of transactions could, within the next quarters, come close to the level of approximately 130 transactions per quarter seen in 2022.
Buyers interested in private residences are increasingly mindful of economic efficiency when making their choices. Those selling new objects with contemporary heating and ventilation solutions and who have installed, for instance, solar panels are therefore in a better position.
The prices of older houses are probably on a downward path. Older houses are not considered to include solely those built in the previous century. The technical solutions of as new as only 10 years old houses may require updating and the house itself some renovations. The prices at which older houses and terraced apartments are offered – often at a price equal to or even higher than that of an object built within the last couple of years – are therefore not reasonable by any means.
Considering the high volume of offers compared to the number of actual transactions conducted, it is clear that sale periods have become significantly longer. The selection is extensive for buyers and will in all likelihood grow even more. Transactions will be closed, first and foremost, with those objects that have been kept in good condition, are economical and priced correctly.
URMAS TEHVER
Market Research & Advisory
+372 513 1410
+372 644 3446
urmas.tehver@balsir.com